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Growth in 2020

By Ramon Gomez, Jr.
Jan 08, 2020

2020 is in full swing and according to Forbes Utah Ranks Among The Fastest Growing States In The Nation - Here’s Why. Utah’s economy is booming thanks to a combination of strong employment growth, a vibrant tech industry and collaboration between business, labor and government. The Beehive State ranks among the fastest-growing states in the nation, with a 1.9 percent growth in population from 2017 to 2018 and is the youngest state in the nation with a median age of 30.5 years.

Despite falling fertility rates, Utah continues to have the largest household size in the nation at 3.19. Ninety-one percent of the population in Utah lives in an urban setting and the population continues to diversify racially and ethnically. Following the release of the July 2019 employment numbers for the state of Utah, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows Utah is ranked No. 1 for total job growth in the nation at 3.6%. In addition, Utah is ranked No. 1 for private sector job growth at 4%. For unemployment, Utah is ranked No. 5 at 2.8%, tied with Hawaii.

In 1997, the nonprofit Envision Utah launched an unprecedented public effort aimed at keeping Utah beautiful, prosperous, healthy and neighborly for future generations. The initiative brought together residents, elected officials, developers, conservationists, business leaders and other interested parties to make informed decisions about how the state should grow. Housing was one of the cornerstones of that vision. Utah’s population had been growing slowly through the 1970s and early 1990s, said Robert Grow, president and CEO of Envision Utah. “We began to grow very rapidly as our economy really started to take off. We had new industry clusters, including high-tech, that were growing. And because of that, the state and the public became very focused on growth in the ’90s.”

Utah’s labor market includes approximately 1.6 million people, most of them concentrated along the Wasatch Front, a chain of contiguous cities and towns stretched along the Wasatch mountain range. The state’s unemployment rate in October stood at a very low 2.5%.

Utah’s thriving tech sector is driving much of the state’s success, helped by its deep talent pool and relative affordability compared with other growing tech hubs. Proximity to other Western tech centers, the region’s large and growing talented workforce and lower real estate costs have spurred development of Silicon Slopes, the hub of Utah's startup and tech community, and the University of Utah Research Park, also known as Bionic Valley, a bioengineering epicenter on the campus of the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Approximately 3 million people live in Utah. By 2050, the population is forecast to nearly double to 5.4 million. Grow noted that Utah has been one of the few places in the country where over 20 years the state undertook a significant effort to make certain there were jobs for everybody and that incomes were growing.

Utah’s unemployment remains at a near record low in Salt Lake City. Grow said, “We have the lowest unemployment in the country, and because of that people are coming here. People are staying here because there are good jobs. So keeping up with that housing market has been a challenge. We’ve been building more housing units in Utah than we’ve ever built before. But there are a number of things going on right now to help with that housing. One is the mix of housing has been changing, so we have a lot more multifamily opportunities. Another thing that has happened is our largest home builder, Ivory Homes, is working with the universities and is offering a major financial award and competition every year on how we can improve housing in the state. And Ivory Homes actually has a special program now to help school teachers, first responders and others find housing in the community.”

“One of the things that came out in the quality growth strategy was civic will to build a really good public transportation system. And so we built public rail faster than anywhere in America over the last 15 to 20 years. We have a very good mixture of transit systems here. We have a major backbone of commuter rail system that’s 92 miles long that runs up and down the Wasatch Front. And then we have all these light rail lines that go off of it. We have bus rapid transit, we have street cars. People who come to Utah are shocked to see this fabulous transit system in what is viewed as a Western conservative state.”

So, with that knowledge here is What You Need to Know About Buying a Home in 2020. Millennials, expect a slew of housewarming party invites to start rolling in. The general consensus is that millennials will be dominating the home-buying market, thus shaping many 2020 trends.

Here’s why: In 2020, millennials will be reaching some key life milestones. Nearly five million millennials will be turning 30, which is a time when many people start getting serious about buying a home, according to an analysis from Realtor.com. But then the oldest members of this generation—let’s call ’em the elder millennials—will be approaching 39, which is a time when people start looking to move from the city to the ‘burbs in search of more family-friendly amenities (i.e. trading a condo close to the best happy hour spots for a backyard equipped with a swing set). Collectively, millennials will account for more than 50 percent of all mortgages by the spring, according to Realtor.com.

So, here’s looking at you millennial buyers. These six home buying trends are expected to come into play in 2020.

Inventory Will Be Low - Inventory shortages, which have been plaguing buyers since 2015, will continue in 2020 and could even reach historic lows, predicts Realtor.com. This is especially true in the entry-level category, which poses a tough hurdle for first-time buyers. Inventory is low partly because Boomers and Gen-Xers are staying in their homes longer, or buying second homes instead of selling their first, explains Philadelphia-based realtor Jim Armstrong. If Gen-X buyers look to upgrade, it could free up some of those hard-to-come-by entry-level homes. In addition to low inventory, first-time buyers are also competing against investors who can make all-cash offers, as well as older buyers who are putting more money down, points out Ohio-based Realtor Michelle Sloan.

We’ll Want Our Homes to Be Smaller - America, we’re downsizing. Sprawling suburban homes are becoming dinosaurs, an ongoing trend that Zillow has zoomed in on and predicts will continue into 2020. The median square footage of newly built, single-family homes has been decreasing over the past five years. In fact, the typical U.S. home has shrunk in size by more than 80 square feet since 2015, according to statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau. Millennials prefer homes in urban areas, with restaurants and parks and other amenities within walking distance—not mansions in the suburbs.

The Market Will Be More Colorful - Expect some bold pops of color in the open houses you tour in 2020. Though we’ve really been flirting with this trend (think: color-saturated front doors) for years, Zillow predicts color is staging a mighty comeback after almost a decade of minimalism, neutrals, and subdued Scandinavian modern designs. Look for color in lighting fixtures, on interior doors, moldings, kitchen cabinetry, and appliances.

You Might Be Able to Come in with a Low Down Payment - “Due to the strong demand, lenders have continued to roll out loan options for well-qualified buyers,” says Jason Kraus, broker at RE/MAX Advanced Realty in Indianapolis. You probably already know you don’t need to put down 20 percent (though, it can help you avoid Private Mortgage Insurance, or PMI). But, Kraus says, lenders have continued to provide low-down payment options, including 3 percent and 1 percent down on conventional loan options. That’s even lower than the 3.5 percent down you’d need to scrape together for an FHA loan.

Mortgage Rates Will Remain Low - Interest rates fell in 2019 and are expected to remain low for most of 2020, experts predict, including those at Zillow. While that’s generally a great thing for buyers, it will keep demand strong, which could mean more price growth in the parts of the country where homes tend to be more affordable. So, this is a good news-bad news situation.

Buyers Will Look for Move-In Ready Properties - Because the starter home inventory has been so low, many first-time buyers have been willing to take on some pretty hefty “Fixer Upper”-style projects so that they can break into the real estate market. But buyers in 2020 will be less willing to do those bigger makeovers.

“Simply put, today’s first-time buyers are busy and unable to take on a renovation project prior to moving in,” says Barbara Ireland, a real estate agent from DJK Residential in New York, New York.

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